A new timetable for withdrawing Russian peacekeeping troops brokered this week by French President Nicolas Sarkozy has edged Europe closer to Russia in its stance on settling the conflict involving Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Russia. Sarkozy met with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev Monday in talks that lasted four hours, with Russia and the EU delegation finally signing an agreement that served as a "reaffirmation" of the six-point plan that Sarkozy and Medvedev issued August 12. The new deal clarified a number of murky issues that have been a source of misunderstanding between all sides, with officials in the West criticizing Moscow on not following through with the plan. According to the new agreement, Russian troops are to pull out from Georgia but not from the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia recognized as independent last month. Georgia, meanwhile, is to withdraw peacekeeping troops from the breakaway republics.
The wording of the new agreement is the closest Europe has come to defining Georgian territorial integrity without South Ossetia and Abkhazia, analysts say. In an overview of the deal published on the official site of the European Union, there is no specific mention of Russia withdrawing peacekeeping troops from the breakaway republics.
The agreement envisions the "withdrawal of all Russian peacekeeping forces from the five observation posts on the line between Poti and Senaki, within a maximum of seven days, taking into account the signing on 8 September of legally binding documents guaranteeing the non-use of force against Abkhazia.
It also means the "complete withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping forces from the areas adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia to
their positions prior to the out-break of hostilities. This withdrawal will take place within 10 days after the deployment in these areas of the inter-national mechanisms, including at least 200 European Union observers, which must take place no later than 1 October 2008." Finally, the agreement entails "completion of the return of the Georgian armed forces to their bases by 1 October 2008."
Defense Minister Anatoly Serdukov announced plans Tuesday that Russia would station a total of 7,600 troops in Georgia's breakaway republics. "We have already agreed on the contingent in the region of 3,800 men in each republic," news agencies quoted him as saying.
The Moscow News asked two foreign policy experts about what the new plan implies for all sides of the conflict.
"Right now the situation is much better than with the first plan brokered by Sarkozy," says Ivan Safranchuk, associate professor at the Moscow State Foreign Relations Institute and a former head of the Moscow office of the Center for Defense Information. "In the first plan, which was never published, the wording of the agreement signed in Moscow differed from the wording of the agreement signed in Tbilisi. In the Moscow version, in French the document referred to ‘security of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,' while the Tbilisi version had ‘security in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.' In the first case, it implied security from Georgia, while in the second case it implied internal security. There was also no specific timetable, as far as I can remember."
The new document is not only much more specific, but in effect defines Georgia without South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Safranchuk said. "The signing of such an agreement is almost a de facto recognition - not a direct one - of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Sarkozy's verbal interpretation implies that Russia should withdraw troops from Georgia's ‘new' borders."
But this kind of wording will mean different interpretations. "Georgia will insist that Russia needs to pull out peacekeeping troops from Georgia based on the official definition of Georgia's territorial integrity, which includes South Ossetia and Abkhazia," Safranchuk said. "Russia will insist on pulling out of Georgia but not out of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This is not very good, but in diplomacy these different interpretations are very frequent, so I wouldn't dramatize. It's good that the wording is the same this time."
Sergei Karaganov, who heads the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, called the new agreement "real progress" that he attributed directly to Sarkozy. Europe's compromise with Russia also puts the union in a unique spot as a global player.
"Sarkozy has placed Europe at the center of world policy," says Karaganov. "He has made several steps towards Russia's position with this plan, turning Europe into a real mediator between Russia and the United States."
Karaganov applauded the plan for Russia's sake, saying that as a result "Georgia's peacekeeping mission has been pushed out of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian peacekeeping troops will remain, while Georgian peacekeeping troops must leave."
By Anna Arutunyan
