There were several important international events at the beginning of April this year. First, there was meeting between Russia and NATO in Bucharest. Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. President George W. Bush and discussed bilateral relations and a number of international political issues in Sochi.

Today there are many crucial international issues where Russia and the U.S. have different points of view - the deployment of the an antiballistic missile shield in the Eastern Europe, NATO enlargement to the East, the status of the disputed region of Kosovo, and others. Russian President-elect Dmitry Medvedev and his U.S. counterpart - whoever it is pending the result of November's presidential election - will have to solve these problems.

The famous Russian geopolitical guru and eminent scholar Evgeny Bazhanov spoke about the future of Russian-American relations, Medvedev's foreign policy and other questions of in an interview with The Moscow News.

Currently, Bazhanov is the Director of the Institute for Contemporary International Studies, and vice president for research and international affairs of the Diplomatic Academy of the Foreign Ministry of Russia.

MN: Mister Bazhanov, what are there chances that a new Cold War will erupt between Russia and the West?

BAZHANOV: There are serious geo-political differences between Russia and the West fueled by historical memories and especially by Washington's attempts to achieve hegemony in international affairs. Russia, with its long great power tradition and huge potential, strongly opposes U.S. moves to shift the military balance further in its favor, to gain control over Russian neighbors, to determine the destinies of sovereign states, and to unilaterally and arbitrarily ignore international law.

However, there are at the same time opportunities for cooperation between Russia and the West, including its leader, the United States. In the security field the two sides face a wide range of identical threats: terrorism, the spread of nuclear weapons, local conflicts that damage the interests of the entire global community, poverty, social injustice, diseases. These are the root problems of many security problems.

In the economic sphere, we see deepening inter-dependence between Russia and the West especially evident in energy supplies, finances, and investments. Human contact grows by leaps and bounds. And finally, ideology no longer separates the former Cold War antagonists. Russia will certainly continue to build a democratic, market-economy society and the West is interested in not distracting Russia from this course.

Consequently, shared values and requirements of globalization will smooth differences between Russia and the West, making them more accommodating in regards to each other as well as in international affairs in general. The Cold War will not be repeated.

MN: Which candidate for U.S. presidency is preferable to Russia?

BAZHANOV: I think Mr. Obama due to his personal convictions and because of the expectations of those liberal Americans who support him will try to make U.S. foreign policy more reasonable and acceptable to other members of the world community. Mr. Obama will certainly face resistance on the part of the military-industrial complex and other hegemonic segments of the American society. And yet Mr.Obama can succeed at least in the partial reorientation of U.S. strategy abroad.

Mrs. Clinton will not be equally innovative but she is also much more preferable to us than Mr. McCain. This man appreciates nothing but sheer force, which Russia can achieve only by engaging in a new arms race. And we neither want, need nor can afford that.

MN: How will Russian foreign policy change under Mr. Medvedev?

BAZHANOV: Basically, Russia will continue its present independent active line of striving for multi-polarity on the U.N. and international law. However, Russian foreign policy will become more balanced, flexible and open.

In dealing with the CIS countries, Moscow will respect more their sovereignty and their desire to diversify foreign relations and will prefer to solve problems in a low-key diplomatic manner rather than resorting to rhetoric and public polemics. Efforts will be made to overcome differences with the West and work closer with it. The Asia-Pacific region will also remain a focus of the Kremlin's attention. Our cooperation with China will intensify while relations with Japan will be moved ahead.

MN: Is the world going to be unipolar or multipolar in the foreseeable future?

BAZHANOV: Some observers insist that the world is already unipolar and will remain such till at least the middle of the 21st century. I totally disagree with this thesis. If the U.S. is so almighty than how come it cannot force its will on tiny Cuba and North Korea? Why can't it put an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? As a proof of the American supremacy the Iraq's case is cited. Washington used force against Iraq and no one could stop it.

Well, force was regularly applied in the Cold War by the U.S., the USSR and sometimes by other countries. For instance, Americans invaded Vietnam, Cambodia, Lebanon, Grenada, etc., the Soviet Union dispatched troops to Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan. Despite these actions nobody hurried to declare the world unipolar American or unipolar Soviet. This time Americans invaded Iraq and almost immediately realized that they could not control that country by themselves. They begged for help from the UN and various countries.

It is clear that American ability to dictate in the world is limited. U.S. economic potential is also not sufficient to support hegemony in the world. Another factor is opposition to hegemonic policies of Washington inside American society. And finally we can see that a growing number of states, movements, fronts, parties throughout the world reject American supremacy and more and more energetically challenge it.

Sooner or later the U.S. will realize that it has no choice but to work in concert with others in managing world affairs.

MN: After the proclamation of Kosovo's independence, will Russia recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

BAZHANOV: I hope that our government will not do it. First of all, by acting in such a way, we will join the West in undermining the norms of international law and destabilizing global security. Instead, we should give an example of strict observance of international law.

Second, Russia will get a permanent hot spot near its borders.

Third, we'll completely spoil relations with Georgia, while there are plenty of opportunities for a close friendship with this neighbour.

Fourth, the move will facilitate NATO's penetration into the Caucasus and create additional collisions of Russia with the bloc and the West in general.

Fifth, it will further jeopardize prospects of the CIS and induce disintegration processes throughout the post-Soviet space.

Finally, hardly any other state will recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. We'll be left isolated on this issue. 

By Yuri Plutenko

Fact Box:

Evgeny Bazhanov was born on November 6, 1946 in Lvov (Ukraine). He is a graduate of the Moscow State Institute of the International Relations (1970), the Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow, (Doctor of History, 1987), and the Diplomatic Academy in Moscow's Mid-career Program for Diplomats (1979-1981). He served as a political officer of the USSR Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1970-1972), Vice Consul of the USSR Consulate General in San Francisco, USA (1973-1979), Political Counselor of the USSR Embassy in Beijing, China (1981-1985), and as an adviser to Mikhail Gorbachev on Foreign Policy (1985-1991). Presently he is Vice President for Research and International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (since 1991), Director of the Institute for Contemporary International Studies (since 1994), and professor of International Relations (since 1991). Bazhanov has written 29 books and over 1,000 articles on various aspects of international relations. His recent published books are: Oriental Express with Stops in the West (2008), China: From the Middle Kingdom to the Superpower of the XXI century (2007), and America: Yesterday and Today (2005). He has given more than 400 lectures at over 150 Universities and Research Centers in 22 countries, including Harvard, Columbia, Stanford, George Washington, Cambridge, Oxford, Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Australian National and many others. He speaks fluent English, Chinese, and French. He is a member of the Association of Russian Sinologists (since 1986).