While "shocking" was a frequently used word in the West to describe President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he would head United Russia's ticket in the upcoming parliamentary elections, the struggle for stability was a primary motivating factor behind what has now been dubbed the Putin Plan.
Putin's remarks at the end of United Russia's congress on Monday were not anticipated. However, experts had not ruled out such a possibility as a way for the president to hold on to power while sidestepping a constitutional ban on three consecutive terms in office.
Several speakers at the congress - including a textile worker, Yelena Lapshina, from the provinces - begged the president to serve a third term. "I see so many big bosses and just smart people at this congress," news agencies quoted her as saying.
"I appeal to all of you: let's... come up with something together so Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will remain the president of Russia after 2008."
While declining the invitation, Putin did the next best thing - heading the party and suggesting, on two conditions, that he might become a prime minister after the elections.
"To head the government is a realistic proposal, but it is too early to think about it, because two conditions first have to be met. The first is that United Russia must win the State Duma elections on Dec. 2.; second, the elected president should be a decent, effective, modern-thinking person who I could work with. But what we can and must talk about today is that your party can and must become an instrument of social stability... That is why I gratefully accept your proposal that I head the federal list of United Russia."
Putin's speech was interrupted by applause at more than one place, notably when he agreed that heading the government was "realistic," and when he foresaw the possibility of working with a new president.
His acceptance was met with a standing ovation. While some called the congress scripted, others recalled Boris Godunov, Alexander Pushkin's epic poem detailing the life of a Czar between two dynasties in the Time of Troubles, in particular a scene in which the people literally begged Godunov to come back and govern them.
Scripted or not, the congress reflected Putin's unprecedented approval ratings, which stood at 82 percent, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. And although Putin is not allowed to run for president, 62 percent still say they would vote for him if the elections were held next Sunday - something unprecedented in Russian history, where no popular president has left of his own accord. President Boris Yeltsin, who appointed Putin his successor in a New Year's televised address in 1999, left office with a single-digit approval rating.
"We all remember what was happening in the country seven or eight years ago," Putin told United Russia Monday, before announcing his acceptance to head the party. "Many doubted whether we would have the strength to deal with terrorism and separatism, whether we would be able to save our country. By far not all of the problems have been solved. There are still many threats to Russia, but the decisive strike has been made: the constitutional order has been restored, territorial integrity has been restored and guaranteed... It once seemed that we would never rid ourselves of the powerful oligarchy, the power of which was based on corruption, violence and informational blackmail. We have been able to do a lot to clean the upper echelons of government power from illegitimate influence, but there is a lot to be done still."
Putin has repeatedly refused to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third term despite requests from politicians, regional leaders, and even some members of the press and the general public. His latest political maneuver, which would give him considerable powers, is perfectly legal, however.
According to Russian law, anyone can run for deputy for parliament without actually joining the party, and a party can have up to 50 percent non-members in its election list.
According to Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Polity Foundation, who spoke last week at the Association for European Businesses, heading United Russia would allow the party to get a constitutional majority in parliament (something he believes it would not have gotten otherwise, considering the emergence of the left-leaning, pro-Kremlin, A Just Russia). It would have been "good for United Russia, but bad for Putin, considering his chances to return to power in 2012," Nikonov said, just a week before Putin's latest announcement. "Partisanship is bad for presidential candidates because parties are a hated institution in this country."
As a leader of a constitutional majority, Putin would have a lot of power even if he does not go on to become prime minister. "With a constitutional majority, [United Russia] will try to pass constitutional reform," says Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow branch of the Center for Defense Information. "Maybe they will try to turn Russia into a parliamentary republic with a nominal president and a strong prime minister, or a presidential republic with a longer presidential term... but I'm almost certain they'll change the constitution." He added that Putin's system of power had potential for the next seven to 15 years.
Markets reacted positively to the news, with the nation's RTS index trading at 2,092.7 points on Tuesday, something that analysts carefully linked to Putin's Monday remarks.
"Putin has attained stability in Russia, and has protected that stability all this time in office," Ovanes Oganesian, vice president of strategy research at Renaissance Capital told The Moscow News. "And for investors such a statement means that this government course will continue, and stability will continue. This is positive news, that there won't be any major shocks in the near future."
Meanwhile, the tide seemed to be changing in the West as well, as The Times of London ran an editorial by historian Norman Stone, titled "Vladimir Putin rescued Russia from disaster: so let's just leave him be."
"We should not be criticizing Putin," Stone wrote. "[R]ather, encouraging him to stage that referendum."
Still, others took caution in reading too much into Putin's statements. "When a person insists on doing things in a way so that no one can understand anything until the last minute - why spend time on imitating analysis?" Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, told The Moscow News.
By Anna Arutunyan
