Anna Arutunyan
Five years after Viktor Yanukovych was stripped of presidential victory over vote-rigging claims, the only cover-up in Kiev was by topless feminist campaigners who used strategically-placed duct tape to hide their voting intentions. And even that, at the polling station where Yanukovych was about to cast his ballot, was a half-hearted affair.
Although the margins were eerily similar to 2004 - Yanukovych led with 48.4 per cent against Orange princess Yulia Tymoshenko's 46 per cent on Monday afternoon, with over 97 per cent of the votes counted - a concerted attempt to stage a repeat of the Orange Revolution street protests looked less likely, given Ukrainians' disillusionment with politicians of all colours.
Although the margin between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych had narrowed on Monday morning, it looked to be widening as the day went on.
Yanukovych had all but declared victory, saying that his rival should accept defeat and "get ready for dismissal" as prime minister. Analysts said the numbers appeared to be against Tymoshenko, however, and that it was unlikely she could pass Yanukovych.
But Tymoshenko could still try to put up a tough fight, complete with 2004-style street protests and lawsuits, if not to wrest the presidency, then to wrest a deal from Yanukovych that would see her hang on the premiership.
Tymoshenko urged her supporters to fight for "every document" and "every vote", saying that the
results were still within the margin of error.
In 2004, Yanukovych, then backed publicly by Russian President Vladimir Putin, took a 2 per cent lead over his rival, Viktor Yushchenko. But today, after years of tense relations with Russia under Yushchenko, both candidates have campaigned on a Russia-friendly policy.
Another key difference is that European vote monitors say they have not seen any "mass irregularities" in voting procedures. As of late Monday afternoon, they had yet to deliver a full report.
Yanukovych's Party of the Regions, however, has accused Tymoshenko's bloc of interfering in the work of local election committees, while Tymoshenko's supports have accused Yanukovych's camp of violations in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Some 5,000 Yanukovych supporters took to Kiev's streets on Monday with a rally in front of the Central Elections Committee, bearing placards reading: "Yulia, enough hysterics!" and "Let's protect the votes, no to manipulations!"
Tymoshenko's supporters have yet to follow suit, although experts say that vibrant, Orange-style protests could well occur in the run-up to the official result being announced on Feb. 17.
"Tymoshenko is waiting for a final vote count and collecting reports of violations, and armed with these she will take the offensive," said Sergei Markov, a senior United Russia State Duma deputy who was in Kiev to observe the election.
There was "no chance" the election results could turn in Tynoshenko's favour, Markov said, as more votes had already been counted in western Ukraine, giving Yanukovych the possibility of more votes in the later-reporting, pro-Russian east of the country.
Markov said street protests could not be ruled out, but said that while the 2004 protests were "sincere", this year they would be manufactured.
Yevgeny Minchenko, chairman at the Ukraine Institute in Moscow, said the Orange protests would probably take a different form this time.
"In 2004 there were no lawsuits - the opposition simply declared the vote was falsified," he said, adding that Tymoshenko was likely to dispute the results, region by region, through the courts. "Most likely, Tymoshenko's campaigners will start taking people to the streets once the lawsuits are ready, as a measure aimed at influencing the courts."
About 4.8 people voted "against all," and Minchenko says these were mostly supporters of Sergei Tigipko, a former Central Bank chief, Arseny Yatsenyuk, a former foreign minister and Yushchenko, the outgoing president.
