Tim Wall

By any yardstick governing international relations, Russia's leadership has achieved its primary objectives in the year since last August's war with Georgia.

The European Union and the United States have distanced themselves from Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's regime, while NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine looks an even remoter possibility than ever.

And all talk of sanctions against Russia melted away within months of last August's conflict, as Saakashvili's version of events began to be questioned by Western media.

As Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, put it last week, "Nothing has resulted from attempts to isolate Russia politically."

It is true that the anniversary was marked last week with a steady ratcheting up of rhetoric on both sides, but a new war looks off the table, at least for now.

Saakashvili knows he would get even less support from the West, while Russia's leadership has little or no interest in derailing a nuclear arms deal with US President Barack Obama.

But if the external threat appears to have lessened, the internal situation in the North Caucasus has worsened over the last 12 months.

It may not be as unstable as the situation in Russia on the eve of the 1905 revolution, when the Tsar's Interior Minister, Vyacheslav Plehve, is reputed to have said of the conflict with Japan: "We need a small, victorious war to avert a revolution."

But the signs are worrying.

In unstable Ingushetia, President Dmitry Medvedev's nominated local leader, Yunus-bek Yevkurov, barely survived an assassination attempt in June, while in Dagestan a low-level insurgency rumbles on.

And in Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov regime's reputation has taken a battering over last month's murder of Memorial activist Natalya Estemirova.

In South Ossetia and Abkhazia, recognition by Russia as independent states has boosted local leaders, but has not lessened their economic dependence on Moscow.

Abkhazia relies on Russia for half its budget, while South Ossetia waits for $300 million in promised aid to kickstart real reconstruction.

The problem for the Kremlin is not finding the money to prop up the Caucasus. It's making sure the cash doesn't go astray.

And a small, victorious war won't change the endemic corruption and baffling bureaucracy that hinder Russia's efforts to govern the region.

t.wall@moscownews.ru