By Sergei Balashov
russiaprofile.org
Russia's worn-out Dissenters opposition movement may soon give way to an emerging force that is likely to take centre stage amid growing discontent, since the public is getting too few answers from both the government and its opponents. Labour unions are likely to find the most support among the electorate, since many people have lost their jobs and have been struggling since the start of the crisis.
Reluctant to take a political stance up till now, the unions have begun making political demands and are now voicing their willingness to consider linking up with opposition groups.
The state's anti-crisis campaign has so far failed to produce palpable results, leaving many dissatisfied. While confusion among the electorate persists, a credible alternative to the mainstream parties, mostly seen as apathetic or under considerable state control, is not yet on offer. None of the opposition forces seems to have the ability to harness the tide of social unrest, despite their ingenuity in holding unsanctioned demonstrations.
The movements and parties comprising The Other Russia coalition have taken a hard-line approach, calling for the government's immediate resignation and a restoration of what they see as democratic values that have all but perished since the current authorities came to power. But with their record and their goals challenged, they don't have sufficient public support to grow into a full-fledged political force. The car owners protesting against higher tariffs on imported vehicles also fall short of appealing to the majority of the discontented.
"Most of the opposition offers vague abstract slogans, like ‘Russia without Putin'," said Pavel Salin, an expert at the Russian Center of Political Trends.
Labour unions have also participated in nationwide protests, but their list of demands has been limited to defending the rights of the laid-off auto workers and those who have seen their salaries slashed. Yet their potential appeal stretches much further.
"They appear to be the single force that matches the demands of the disgruntled electorate the most: they merely stand for the workers' rights without political slogans. People like [Ford union leader] Alexei Etmanov want to go nationwide and have enough support, but in this particular case he hasn't yet expressed any political ambitions," said Salin.
Not all unions should be viewed as potentially carrying political weight, as most of the major union confederations are openly siding with the government. The largest, the Federation of Independent Labor Unions, has been perceived as a part of the ruling elite since Soviet times, used as the state's tool to settle any grievances within the labour force.
The United Russia party sought to extend its support among unions last November, striking a cooperation agreement with another union coalition, Sots-Prof. But while the remaining unions aren't as organised yet, the situation is changing and their political ambitions are becoming more evident.
Up until now, unions have generally been out of the political mainstream. The auto unions and their leaders gained nationwide recognition during the strikes at the Ford plant near St. Petersburg and the ensuing legal battles between the carmaker and its employees.
Before last week's wave of protests, Etmanov, who is also a co-chair of the Interregional Union of Auto Industry Workers, said that cooperation with opposition parties would be welcomed.
He also appealed to all public organizations willing to take a stance against the "worsening living conditions of Russian workers," urging them to join in. "Some unions are already siding with the dissenters and participate in their rallies. Nobody has approached us with such offers; if they do come, we will consider them," Etmanov said.
And such offers are indeed likely to come, as the political opposition's criticism of the government is slowly beginning to resonate with unionised workers. Their potential for rallying various political forces for a common cause is also high.
"If a new political organisation, say a party, does indeed emerge, it will likely be something new, since most of the current opposition leaders have highly negative ratings. They're perceived as not necessarily championing the interests of the public, but that's generally not the case with union leaders," said Alexander Kynev, a political scientist at the Foundation for Informational Policy Development.
Independent unions had already stirred enough controversy even before they started coming to political prominence.
At rallies last Saturday, the unions protested not only against the layoffs, but also defended their leaders, who have fallen victim to numerous attacks.
Etmanov has been attacked twice, while GM union leader Yevgeny Ivanov was assaulted in February. Union activists are also demanding the release of Alrosa union leader Valentin Urusov, who is six years in jail following a conviction on drug charges that the union claims was based on planted evidence.
Union members believe that these attacks, which occurred during conflicts with their employers, are directly related to their leaders' activities, but say that none of the unions gave in to the threats. "If the unions step up beyond their local status, they could gain significance. You can't just set up a party on the basis of nothing, while this scenario of a public organization turning into a party is rather commonplace, if we look at developed democracies," said Kynev.
