The impending crisis is everywhere. In the stores I hear clerks telling each other that the crisis will hit right after the elections, that there will be ruble denomination and that everyone should get rid of their cash savings immediately. In the press the architect of Russia's voucher privatization Anatoly Chubais gives an interview to the New Times magazine touting the global financial crisis and its consequences for Russia's trade balance and predicting that Stabilization Fund will be spent in a matter of four years.
LiveJournal users report reading somewhere that February 29 will be the official date for - what? default? denomination? devaluation? Nobody knows for sure but everybody agrees that something is in the air. This morning I read another LJ user recount his visit to Sberbank where the currency exchange office ran out of dollars by 10 a.m. and people were standing in lines to make deposits, because supposedly nothing would happen to deposits.
There are no objective reasons for the crisis that everyone's waiting for except for one - everyone is waiting for it. In researching this topic I have come across a very good myth-by-myth breakdown of the whole hysteria, which I want to quote here before making my closing remarks.
Myth #1. Liquidity crisis will bring about the banking system crisis. Not so. Liquidity crisis will finally teach Russian banks to stop giving out credit to anyone strong enough to sign their name on the credit contract. Maybe the banks will finally learn that attracting deposits and investing them in new businesses to make a smaller, but overall "better" profit is the way to go. Actually, the banks have switched from advertising super credit to super deposits even before the New Year, but it seems that the campaign wasn't working as well as it was hoped. Maybe the whole crisis rumor mill is spun by the banks that are hoping that people will finally take their mattress savings and bring them to official credit organizations?
Myth #2. Ruble denomination will mean the pillage of the people and collapse of the economy. Not so. Ruble denomination is only capable of driving up the inflation rates and considering that the fight against the inflation has been declared a priority task for what seems like forever, but especially so for this year, it is difficult to believe that the government would willingly undergo that now.
Myth #3. Oil prices will fall and that will mean the end of the Russian economic boom as we know it. It probably could, but the chances of global oil prices falling are slim to none. The Middle East, which supplies the majority of crude, is awash in blood, and while it is, there is little chance of prices falling.
And now for the conclusions. When I first heard of the crisis - not just "some banks will collapse" sort of crisis, but "oh my God, the whole economy will fall" type of crisis - the first thought that came to my mind was this: "There are no reasons for the crisis, but if enough people wish it to become true, it just might." Call it the power of the public unconscious, if you will. Russians are obviously not the only people in the world capable of willing things into existence, but it seems that we are among the few who would willingly bring on a disaster. Even if it's only in our minds.
But I wouldn't want to end this column on such a glum note. The bright thought that just came to my mind while I was writing this story is that the whole "crisis" may very well be orchestrated by the government in pursuit of two goals: to make people deposit their mattress savings in the banks and to devalue ruble at least a little bit. Both tasks are useful for the economy and seemingly unachievable by ordinary means. The fear of crisis, however, may do just that.
By Marina Pustilnik
